Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of the DHS shutdown ending between March 24-27, 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong expectation that the DHS shutdown will not conclude during the specified dates, with a significant majority favoring a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a 'YES' outcome. This indicates a consensus that the shutdown may persist beyond this timeframe.

• 1 Market probability for 'NO' is significantly higher at 85.75%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view with a 18.75% chance for 'YES'.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 470 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.