Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?

The market strongly favors a DHS shutdown continuing past March 7, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that the DHS shutdown will not end between March 4-7, 2026. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 97% probability for a continued shutdown, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of extended disruption. The confidence level of 80 out of 100 indicates a robust conviction in these predictions.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus with 100% NO probability.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 97% NO.
• 3 Confidence level at 80 indicates high certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 497 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a minor edge of 3.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.