Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?

High probability for Emmanuel Grégoire List to win citywide votes by 5-10%.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that the Emmanuel Grégoire List will secure a majority of citywide list votes in the upcoming runoff, with a market probability of 98.60%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 94.6%, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Market indicates overwhelming confidence in Grégoire's success.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 Current edge suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry remains uncertain, impacting market dynamics.

The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives b