Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors the NO outcome for the Greens in 2026 elections.

Current market probabilities indicate a very low chance of the Greens winning the most seats in the upcoming elections, with a NO probability of 99.95%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 1.55%, but overall confidence remains high that the Greens will not secure the most seats.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in the NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a marginally higher probability for YES than the market.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence level of 95/100 reflects strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future market movements.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).