Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

The referendum on individual taxation in Switzerland is highly likely to be approved.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus for approval at 99.95%, with the Pulse AI slightly lower at 97.45%. This suggests a high level of confidence in the outcome, although the market edge indicates it is fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming support for approval.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge suggests the market is accurately priced.
• 4 High confidence level indicates strong belief in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the timeline.

Four referendums will be held on 8 March 2026 (You can read more about that here: www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/popular-vote-on-8-march-2026/):

- Issue 1: Cash initiative and counter-proposal
- Issue 2: Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) initiative
- Issue 3: Climate fund initiative
- Issue 4: Individual taxation

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held on 8 March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results