Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for The Left in the 2026 elections.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% likelihood that The Left will not win the most seats in the upcoming Baden-Württemberg elections. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 3.05%, but overall sentiment remains firmly against The Left's success. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 70 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 3.05%.
• 3 Confidence in the market's pricing is rated at 70/100.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).