Will the Netherlands join the Board of Peace?

The market strongly favors that the Netherlands will not join the Board of Peace.

Current market probabilities indicate a 98% likelihood that the Netherlands will not join the Board of Peace, with a low probability of 2% for a yes outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus against the Netherlands' membership. The edge of 3 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available data.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against membership.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, reinforcing the NO position.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may allow for gradual developments in this political context.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board