Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

The market indicates a low probability for Viktor Orbán to be the next Prime Minister of Hungary.

Currently, the market shows a 36% probability for Viktor Orbán to remain Prime Minister, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 34.5%. With a confidence level of 80/100 and a time to expiry of 693 hours, the market appears fairly priced, indicating that participants do not expect Orbán to continue in his role.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans against Orbán's continuation as Prime Minister.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market expectations.
• 3 The edge of -1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence in the prediction is relatively high at 80/100.
• 5 The time to expiry of 693 hours allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.