Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

The market strongly favors that the Supreme Leader position in Iran will not be abolished.

Current market probabilities indicate a near certainty that the position of Supreme Leader will remain intact, with a 99.95% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for abolition at 3.05%, suggesting a consensus on the stability of this political role in Iran.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in the continuation of the Supreme Leader position.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects stability in Iran's political structure.
• 3 Historical context suggests a strong base rate for the position's endurance.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate, supporting the market's pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments, but current odds remain stable.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme