The market strongly favors a NO outcome for the RKP in the 2026 local elections.
Current market probabilities indicate a minimal chance of the Rebuilding Korea Party winning the upcoming local elections, with a consensus of 99.85% for a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.15% for a YES outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a high level of confidence.
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose En