The market strongly favors the Republican Party not holding 230 or more House seats in 2026.
With a market probability of 98.45% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the Republican Party will not secure 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterms. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher optimism for YES at 6.05%. This indicates a potential divergence in expectations between market participants and AI analysis.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.