Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

The market strongly favors the Republican Party not holding 32 governorships post-2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that the Republican Party will not secure 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterms, with a NO probability of 99.25%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus against the Republicans achieving this milestone.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.25%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a lower probability of YES at 5.25%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 5489 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achiev