Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Market suggests Republicans are likely to hold above 190 House seats in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 69% probability that the Republican Party will secure more than 190 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections. With a confidence level of 60 out of 100, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view of potential outcomes. The time to expiry is significant, allowing for various political developments to influence the market.

• 1 Current market probability favors Republicans retaining more than 190 seats.
• 2 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 3 Time until the election allows for numerous potential political changes.
• 4 Market pricing suggests a balanced view with no clear edge for either side.
• 5 Historical trends may influence voter turnout and party performance.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.