Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

The market strongly favors the Republican Party not holding 205-209 House seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of the Republican Party securing between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections. With a market probability of 93% for 'NO', the sentiment leans heavily against this outcome, despite a slightly higher AI probability of 11.5% for 'YES'. This suggests a consensus that the Republicans may struggle to reach this seat range.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Republicans holding 205-209 seats.
• 2 Pulse AI probabilities indicate a slightly higher chance for 'YES' than the market.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.