Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

The market indicates a low probability for the GOP to hold 22 or 23 governorships in 2026.

With a market probability of 29% for the Republican Party to hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterms, the consensus leans heavily towards a NO outcome at 71%. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, suggesting a lack of confidence in the GOP achieving this specific number of governorships.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability reflects a cautious outlook on GOP governorships.
• 3 Historical trends suggest variability in gubernatorial races.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with no significant edge.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achiev