Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

The SNS is highly unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against the SNS winning the most seats, with a 99.95% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of 4.55% for a YES outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment against SNS winning.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a stable political landscape.
• 3 Historical performance of SNS may impact future expectations.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for current market conditions.
• 5 Time until election allows for potential shifts in dynamics.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with