Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

The SLS is highly unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against the Slovenian People’s Party winning the most seats, with a 99.95% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.05% for a YES outcome, suggesting minimal confidence in the SLS's chances as the election approaches.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome for SLS.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance than the market.
• 3 Current edge indicates the market is fairly priced at 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 371 hours, adding urgency.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with