Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

The market shows low probability for the US acquiring part of Greenland in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the US will not acquire part of Greenland, with a NO probability of 83.5%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood for acquisition at 19.5%, but overall sentiment remains skeptical. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a high confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability for NO acquisition is significantly higher than YES.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a marginally higher chance for acquisition than the market.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about US territorial expansion.
• 4 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.

1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.

2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.

3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or c