Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

The market suggests low confidence in US confirmation of alien existence by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the US will not confirm the existence of aliens by the deadline, with a 84.5% likelihood of a NO outcome. However, the AI's higher probability estimate suggests that the YES side may be undervalued, indicating potential for shifts in sentiment as the deadline approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The YES side has a perceived undervaluation of 6 points.
• 3 AI probability suggests a higher chance of confirmation than the market.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in public discourse.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.