Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

The market predicts a 100% chance of the US declaring war on Iran by April 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 100% probability of the US declaring war on Iran by April 30, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 96% probability, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -4.

• 1 Market consensus indicates strong belief in a US-Iran conflict.
• 2 High confidence level suggests limited uncertainty among traders.
• 3 The slight negative edge implies the market is accurately priced.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 869 hours until expiry.
• 5 Potential geopolitical shifts could rapidly alter market sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.