Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

The Virginia redistricting referendum has a strong likelihood of passing.

With a market probability of 72% in favor of the referendum passing, the sentiment leans positively. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 68%, indicating a consensus among participants. The edge of -4 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view on the outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a YES outcome at 72%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 68%, indicating cautious optimism.
• 3 The market edge of -4 suggests no significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 75/100, reflecting strong belief in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is 724 hours, allowing for potential shifts in public opinion.

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporti