Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Market strongly favors a new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a 96.35% probability that there will be a new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30, with a consensus leaning towards a 'NO' outcome. The AI probability also supports this view, suggesting a high level of confidence in the current market pricing.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the possibility of no new leader.
• 2 The significant gap between market and AI probabilities suggests stable expectations.
• 3 Historical trends indicate a pattern of leadership transitions in Iran.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient to support current pricing dynamics.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with over 7000 hours until expiry.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme