Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?

Thierry Mariani is highly unlikely to win the Paris mayor election.

The market indicates a very low probability of Thierry Mariani winning the Paris mayor election, with a consensus of 99.95% against. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a strong belief in his defeat. Given the confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming support for 'NO' on Mariani's victory.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 3.05%.
• 3 Current sentiment heavily favors Mariani's opponents.
• 4 Market confidence at 80/100 indicates strong conviction in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).