Will Thomas Fisher be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Thomas Fisher is unlikely to be the Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Thomas Fisher being the Democratic nominee for IL-07, with a 99.7% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of his nomination at 4.8%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 99.7%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low chance of Fisher's nomination at 4.8%.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is 131 hours, allowing for potential changes in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.