Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Market favors Tisza not winning 110–119 seats in the assembly.

The prediction market indicates an 82% probability that Tisza will not secure 110–119 seats, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 22.5% for a YES outcome. With a confidence level of 55 out of 100 and a time to expiry of 513 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced with a small edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for YES than the market.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time until election could allow for shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Market pricing suggests balanced expectations among participants.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian go