Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Tisza is unlikely to win 130+ seats in the upcoming election.

The market indicates a 22.5% probability for Tisza to secure 130+ seats, suggesting skepticism about this outcome. With a confidence level of 55/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a cautious stance as the election approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability reflects a cautious view on Tisza's electoral prospects.
• 3 Market pricing shows no significant edge, indicating balanced views.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian go