Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Tisza is unlikely to win fewer than 70 seats in the upcoming election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Tisza winning less than 70 seats, with a NO probability of 98.15%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of this outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Tisza winning more than 70 seats.
• 2 The market probability suggests strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for YES, but still low overall.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time until election is 557 hours, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian go