Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?

The market indicates a low chance of Tisza winning by 6-9% in 2026.

Current market probability suggests an 83% likelihood that Tisza will not win the national list vote by 6-9%. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 21.5%, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 750 hours, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Market sentiment leans heavily against Tisza's chances.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest low confidence in Tisza's performance.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly balanced.
• 4 Time remaining allows for potential shifts in public perception.
• 5 Political dynamics may evolve leading up to the election.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in th