Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

The market suggests Tisza is unlikely to win by 9% or more in the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 39.5% chance of Tisza winning the national list vote by 9% or more, with a majority of 60.5% favoring the NO outcome. The market is considered fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the NO verdict as the election approaches.

• 1 Current sentiment leans towards Tisza not achieving a 9%+ victory.
• 2 The market probability indicates a clear NO preference.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short at 751 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears to be liquid and fairly priced with no edge.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in th