Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Tom Steyer has a low chance of winning the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market indicates a 7.65% probability of Tom Steyer winning the California Governor Election in 2026, with a strong consensus against his victory at 92.35%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 12.15%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100, indicating uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 4.5.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.