Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?

Low probability for Tran Luu Quang as next Prime Minister of Vietnam.

The market indicates a strong belief that Tran Luu Quang will not become the next Prime Minister, with a probability of only 8%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 9.5%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 1.5. Overall confidence in this prediction is high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Tran Luu Quang.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and AI are closely aligned.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence level indicates strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister is selected through internal decisions of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The Party is scheduled to hold its 14th National Congress from January 19 to January 25, 2026, after which the National Assembly of Vietnam is expected to formally elect the next Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is formally elected by the National Assembly and officially assumes office as Prime Minister of Vietnam.

To count for resolution, the individual must formally assume the office of Prime Minister. Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Assembly of Vietnam; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.