Will Trey Kelley win the GA-14 special election?

Trey Kelley is highly unlikely to win the GA-14 special election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Trey Kelley winning, with a 99.95% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.05% for a YES outcome, indicating a general lack of confidence in Kelley's chances.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 3.05%.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding to market unpredictability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election should take place no later than February 15, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://sos.ga.gov/.