Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?

Trần Thanh Mẫn has a low chance of becoming Vietnam's next President.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Trần Thanh Mẫn becoming the next President of Vietnam, with a probability of only 8.15% for a YES outcome. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 9.65%, indicating a well-balanced market sentiment. The confidence level of 85 suggests a reliable assessment of current political dynamics.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Trần Thanh Mẫn's support remains below 10%, indicating weak backing.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.5.
• 4 High confidence level suggests stability in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Vietnam’s President is selected through internal decisions of the Communist Party of Vietnam and its National Assembly. The Party is holding its 14th National Congress from January 19 to January 25, 2026, after which the National Assembly of Vietnam is expected to elect leadership positions including President.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is formally elected by the National Assembly to assume the office of President of Vietnam.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected to assume the office of President. Any acting, interim, or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If the offices of President of Vietnam and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam are merged such that an individual is elected to hold a joint office as leader of the party and head of state of Vietnam, this market will resolve to that individual.

If no such President is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Assembly of Vietnam; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be u