Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?

The market strongly favors that Trump and Putin will not meet in Belarus.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (98.85%) that Trump and Putin will not meet in Belarus, contrasting with a lower AI probability of 5.65% for a meeting. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5, suggesting that participants have a moderate level of confidence in the prevailing sentiment.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against a meeting occurring.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for a meeting than the market.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is well-aligned with expectations.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 2690 hours allows for potential developments impacting the market.

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.