Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

Market indicates low likelihood of Trump's impeachment by June 30.

The prediction market shows a 4.5% probability for Trump's impeachment by June 30, suggesting a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of impeachment events occurring in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against impeachment.
• 2 The probability of 4.5% suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 9%, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in current predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.