Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?

The market strongly favors that 'Trump' will not be mentioned at the Oscars.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% chance that 'Trump' will not be said at the Oscars, with a very low 0.05% chance for a YES. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a mention at 1.55%, indicating a potential divergence in sentiment, but overall confidence remains high that 'Trump' will not be referenced.

• 1 Market consensus heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of YES at 1.55%.
• 3 Confidence level is strong at 85/100, indicating reliable sentiment.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 No clear time pressure is indicated due to unknown expiry.

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled broadcast of the Oscars on ABC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

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