Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Market favors a NO on Trump's endorsement of Machado for Venezuela's presidency in 2026.

The prediction market shows an 81% probability against Trump endorsing María Corina Machado, with a lower AI probability of 22% for a YES. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100, indicating a stable sentiment around this outcome as the expiry approaches.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO at 81%.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher YES probability at 22%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7110 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.