Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?

The market strongly favors NO for Trump issuing a Gold Card by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 95.5% likelihood that Trump will not issue a Gold Card by the deadline. The Pulse AI also supports this view, estimating a 91% chance of NO. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of 513 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability for NO is significantly higher than YES.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 9%.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential developments impacting the market.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about Trump's issuance of a Gold Card.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first U.S. "Gold Card" visa, is officially issued by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any new visa or pathway to citizenship which is granted as part of a new program created by the Trump Administration after February 26, 2025, which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information form the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.