Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Market shows low probability for Trump to pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 8.5% chance that Trump will pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of 2026, with a consensus leaning heavily towards 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Current market probability for a pardon is low at 8.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 11.5%.
• 3 Market confidence is rated at 80/100, indicating strong sentiment.
• 4 The time to expiry is significant at over 7000 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.