Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (March 15)

Market predicts Trump will use either 'Ass' or 'Shit' this week with high certainty.

The market shows a strong consensus that Trump will use one of the specified words, with a 100% probability for 'YES'. However, the AI probability suggests a slight undervaluation of the 'NO' side, indicating some uncertainty that could be influenced by upcoming events.

• 1 Current market probability for 'YES' is at 100%.
• 2 AI probability indicates a 5.5% chance for 'NO', suggesting potential for value.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 54 hours, increasing urgency in the market.
• 5 Market sentiment heavily favors the use of either word by Trump this week.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not q