Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Arch" during Taoiseach events?

Market favors Trump not saying 'Ballroom' or 'Arch' at Taoiseach events.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards Trump not using either term during Taoiseach events, with a 72% probability for 'NO'. The AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus that suggests limited expectation for these specific words to be used.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 72%.
• 2 AI model slightly higher on 'YES' at 29.5%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 5 No specific expiry time could affect urgency in betting.

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a meeting with the Taoiseach of Ireland on March 17, 2026 (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Taoiseach, Michaél Martin, on March 17, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and Michaél Martin. All such events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or