Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (March 22)

Market shows a slight lean towards Trump saying 'Ceasefire' this week.

The prediction market indicates a 54% probability that Trump will say 'Ceasefire' this week, which is slightly above the 46% for 'NO'. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a narrower margin, with a 47.5% chance for 'YES' and 52.5% for 'NO', indicating uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans slightly towards a 'YES'.
• 2 The probabilities are closely matched, indicating uncertainty.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a more cautious outlook compared to market odds.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 112 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market edge of -6.5 reflects insufficient data for a confident prediction.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not