Will Trump say "Chuck Norris" this week? (March 29)

Market suggests low likelihood of Trump saying 'Chuck Norris' this week.

The prediction market indicates an 80% chance that Trump will not say 'Chuck Norris' this week, with a low confidence level of 55 out of 100. The AI probability is slightly higher for a YES at 21.5%, suggesting a marginally optimistic outlook compared to the market. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome at 80%.
• 2 AI probability slightly favors YES at 21.5%, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting mixed sentiment.
• 4 Market edge of 1.5 suggests fair pricing with little discrepancy.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 94 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not