Will Trump say "Churchill" this week? (March 15)

The market strongly favors that Trump will not say 'Churchill' this week.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% belief that Trump will not mention 'Churchill' this week, with a slight chance of 1.5% from AI predictions suggesting otherwise. The confidence level of 80/100 indicates a relatively high certainty in this outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Trump saying 'Churchill'.
• 2 AI predictions offer a minimal chance of 1.5% for a YES outcome.
• 3 High confidence level suggests market stability in current pricing.
• 4 No imminent events appear likely to influence Trump's speech topics.
• 5 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting stable participant engagement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not q