Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 22)

Market shows a close probability for Trump saying 'Democrat Shutdown' this week.

The prediction market indicates a 55% probability that Trump will use the phrase 'Democrat Shutdown' within the week, suggesting a slight lean towards affirmation. The Pulse AI probability is closely aligned, reflecting a balanced view on the likelihood of this statement being made. Given the confidence level of 55/100, the market appears to be fairly priced with a narrow edge.

• 1 Current market probability favors a 'YES' at 55%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment at 50.5%.
• 3 Market edge of -4.5 suggests fair pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is 120 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not