Will Trump say "Fake News" this week? (March 15)

Market predicts Trump will say 'Fake News' this week with high confidence.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that Trump will use the phrase 'Fake News' this week, with a 100% probability for YES. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 94.5%, indicating that the NO side may be undervalued by 5.5 points, reflecting some uncertainty in the prediction.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is at 100%, indicating strong sentiment.
• 2 AI model suggests a lower probability of 94.5% for YES, indicating potential undervaluation of NO.
• 3 The edge of -5.5 points suggests some room for movement in the NO side.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 54 hours, increasing the urgency of the prediction.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not q