Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (March 29)

Market indicates low likelihood of Trump saying 'Gay' this week.

The prediction market shows an 86% probability that Trump will not say 'Gay' this week, with a lower AI probability of 22% for a 'YES' outcome. The edge of 8 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment, reflecting uncertainty in the market's sentiment.

• 1 Current market probability favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 AI model suggests a higher likelihood for 'YES' compared to market consensus.
• 3 The edge indicates a lack of strong predictive data for this event.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, reflecting uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market movements.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not