Will Trump say "Hat" this week? (March 15)

Market indicates Trump is unlikely to say 'Hat' this week.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Trump saying 'Hat' this week, with a 100% NO probability. This aligns closely with the AI probability of 98.5% NO, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is at 0.00%, indicating strong skepticism.
• 2 AI probability suggests a minimal chance of Trump saying 'Hat' at 1.5%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced with little room for deviation.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 reflects a strong belief in the NO outcome.
• 5 No time to expiry is noted, which may affect market dynamics as the week progresses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not q