Market predicts Trump will mention 'Iran' at the Women's History Month event.
The prediction market shows a strong consensus that Trump will say 'Iran' during the upcoming Women's History Month event, with a 100% probability for YES. This aligns closely with the AI probability of 97.5%, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome, though the market is considered fairly priced with a slight edge of -2.5.
Donald Trump is scheduled to host an event for Women's History Month on March 12, 2026 (https://x.com/KellieMeyerNews/status/2031434734954229899).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the Women's History Month event scheduled for March 12, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
This market is explicitly about Trump's Women's History Month event scheduled for March 12, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-"