Will Trump say "Mental Institution" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?

The market strongly favors Trump not saying 'Mental Institution' at the NRCC Dinner.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Trump will not use the phrase 'Mental Institution' at the NRCC Dinner, with a 99.55% chance of NO. The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 4.95%, indicating some divergence in sentiment between market participants and AI predictions.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against the phrase being used.
• 2 AI model predicts a small chance of the phrase being mentioned.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the market dynamics.

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks at the NRCC Dinner on March 25, 2026 (https://www.nrcc.org/2026/02/11/nrcc-announces-president-trump-as-keynote-speaker-for-2026-presidents-dinner/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the NRCC Dinner scheduled for March 25, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the NRCC Dinner scheduled for March 25, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 25, 202